Polymarket Odds

**Quick judgment** A strong, focused skill for fetching real-time Polymarket odds and event information. Well-suited whenever the user explicitly asks for “odds,” “prediction market probabilities,” or “chances” of concrete events. It should be treated as a data source—market-implied probabilities—not as ground truth. **What it does well** - Gives live prices that map directly to probabilities (e.g., 0.65 ≈ 65% implied chance). - Good coverage: politics, elections, sports, crypto, business, and tech. - Flexible queries: keyword search, category-based browsing, market details, tags, prices, and orderbooks. - No API key required, using Polymarket’s public gamma API. **Main risks / limitations** - **External dependency**: relies fully on Polymarket’s public API; outages, rate limits, or schema changes will break or degrade the skill. - **Prediction-market bias**: odds reflect trader beliefs and incentives, not objective certainty; markets can be thin, illiquid, or temporarily irrational. - **Gambling and sensitive topics**: it surfaces odds on elections, geopolitics, and other sensitive events, which may intersect with local gambling regulations or user sensitivities. The assistant should avoid encouraging betting or financial decisions and present results as informational only. - **Precision vs. accuracy**: probabilities may change quickly; snapshots can become stale if interpreted as long-term forecasts. **Recommended scenarios** - Use when a user explicitly asks: “What are the current odds/probability that X happens?” or “What does Polymarket think about Y?” - Use to compare market views across domains (e.g., elections vs. polls, or crypto price targets vs. analyst forecasts). - Use for real-time sports odds on specific matches when users want market-implied win/draw/lose or over/under probabilities. - Avoid using it as the sole basis for prescriptive advice (e.g., how to bet or invest); instead, present it as one informational signal among others.