Polymarket Trader

**Judgement:** A specialized, technically solid skill for BTC 1h Up/Down markets that formalizes edge-based trading around Binance BTCUSDT as the resolution source. It is best suited for advanced users comfortable with quantitative signals, Python scripts, and Polymarket-style prediction markets. **Key strengths:** - End-to-end workflow: market-type checks, signal construction, edge thresholds, regime filters, and differentiated exit logic. - Clear separation between model-driven and mean-reversion entries, reducing churn and overtrading when followed correctly. - Strong emphasis on validation: logging plus an `explain_fills` script to diagnose questionable trades using Binance context. **Risks and limitations:** - Strategy is highly niche: focused on BTC 1h up/down markets and relies on Binance BTCUSDT integrity and availability. - No embedded portfolio sizing or broader risk framework; misuse can still lead to significant real-money losses despite anti-churn rules. - Complexity of parameters (volatility, z-scores, regime flags, thresholds) may lead to misconfiguration or overfitting if users are not careful. **Recommended scenarios:** - Quantitatively inclined traders who already use Polymarket or similar platforms and want a more disciplined, audit-friendly BTC 1h strategy. - Researchers or system builders looking for a reference implementation of volatility-based fair pricing and edge gating for short-horizon crypto markets. - Users who value detailed post-trade explanations to refine their strategy and avoid repeated “nonsense trades.”